Sudan Conflict Situational Analysis – Post-January 2024 Dynamics, Impacts, and Future Scenarios

Location: Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Uganda

Deadline: 28 Aug 2025

Job Description

1. Background

The Salama HUB, a consortium of the American Friends Service Committee (AFSC) and the All-Africa Conference of Churches (AACC), was established in 2021 to strengthen the capacity of civil society and faith-based organizations in promoting peace and stability across the Horn of Africa. The hub engages IGAD member states Djibouti, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, and Uganda through evidence-based research, advocacy skills to enable local actors to influence conflict resolution and policy development.

Sudan, one of the region’s most fragile states, has faced decades of political instability and violent conflict. Hopes for democratic transition after the 2019 ousting of President Omar al-Bashir were undermined by tensions between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) led by General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, culminating in full-scale war on 15 April 2023. The conflict is driven by historical grievances, resource competition, military integration disputes, and unresolved justice demands, with emerging trends such as shifting alliances, external influence, and the spread of misinformation and hate speech further exacerbating the crisis. The war’s toll is immense mass displacement, destruction of infrastructure, GBV, and exclusion of women and youth from peace processes underscoring the urgent need for a situational analysis. In 2023, AFSC conducted a comprehensive Horn of Africa (HoA) study that analyzed Sudan’s root causes of conflict, historical trends, and key drivers. The findings of that study, which was finalized and disseminated in early 2024 after the outbreak of the current war in April, provide essential background information for this situational analysis. This current study will build on those insights, focusing specifically on the evolving dynamics, humanitarian impacts, and emerging trends in Sudan since 2024.

2. Purpose of the Assignment

The AFSC Salama hub seeks a consultant to undertake a comprehensive situational analysis of the current Sudan armed conflict focusing on:

• Context of Sudan, causes and key driving factors of the conflict 2024 – to-date (historical, political, socio-economic, and environmental)
• Actors in the conflict (internal, external).
• Emerging trends and shifts in alliances and conflict dynamics
• Different initiatives that have been on going to bring peace in Sudan (misses or effectiveness of these processes).
• The human impact of war, including humanitarian, peacebuilding, and development implications
• The gender dimension, with particular focus on GBV, and violence against children, young girls and boys.
• The roles of women and youth in conflict and peace processes
• The role of misinformation, hate speech, and media in exacerbating the conflict
• Possible future trajectories for Sudan and implications for regional stability

3. Objectives of the Study

• The specific objectives of the study are to:
• Provide a current context analysis of Sudan, highlighting political, social, and economic conditions influencing the conflict (specifically the conflict since 2024).
• Investigate the root causes and key driving factors of the armed conflict in Sudan since 2024, including both visible and invisible actors.
• Identify and analyze new and emerging trends, including shifts in alliances, geopolitical alignment, and evolving conflict dynamics.
• Assess the plight of war and its impact on humanitarian needs, peacebuilding initiatives, and development interventions.
• Examine the gender dimension of the conflict including the prevalence and nature of gender-based violence (GBV), (including girls, boys and children).
• Examine the roles of women and youth in conflict and peace processes.
• Analyze the role of media in fueling or exacerbating the conflict (fake news, hate speech, social media etc.).
• Explore possible future scenarios for Sudan and their implications for peace and stability in the Horn of Africa region.
• Identify challenges and constraints facing mediation and negotiation efforts of the conflict from 2024 to date).
• Suggest evidence-based recommendations for the international community, regional institutions, different actors in the conflict, armed groups, CSOs, women’s and youth groups, and citizens of Sudan to achieve a sustainable ceasefire and long-term stability.

4. Expected Deliverables

The consultant will produce:

1. Draft Report including:
   • Executive Summary
   • Current context analysis of Sudan
   • Conflict dynamics and emerging trends
   • Key drivers and actors (visible & invisible) – latest conflict and their roles in the conflict.
   • Impact of the conflict on humanitarian needs, peacebuilding, and development
   • Gender analysis including GBV, among women, girls, boys and children.
   • The role of women/youth in conflict and peace processes
   • The role of media, fake news, and hate speech in the conflict
   • Possible future scenarios for Sudan
   • Conclusions and evidence-based recommendations
2. Final Report incorporating feedback from AFSC Salama HUB and the Regional Office.

5. Methodology

• Desk review of existing literature, reports, and media analysis
• Key informant interviews with experts, civil society, and conflict actors
• Focus group discussions with relevant stakeholders including women’s and youth groups

6. Duration of the Assignment

20 days, from September 8 to 28, 2025.

7. Required Expertise and Qualifications

• Postgraduate qualification in Peace Studies, International Relations, Political Science, or related field
• 5–10 years’ experience in conflict analysis, peacebuilding, and mediation processes
• Proven expertise in gender and conflict analysis, particularly in GBV-sensitive contexts
• Demonstrated understanding of Sudan’s conflict dynamics and regional implications
• Strong research and analytical writing skills

How to Apply

Applicants should submit:

• Updated CV with references for similar work
• Technical Proposal demonstrating understanding of the assignment
• Financial Proposal (professional fees and logistical expectations)
• Two samples of recent consultancy or related
• All applications should be submitted by August 28, 2025, through this link: https://forms.gle/2mEUs1FymXLCZSZ28 and for any inquiries, please write to: YTuke@afsc.org.

Only shortlisted candidates will be contacted.