Consultant on econometric modeling of poverty, inequality, and labour mobility in Africa

To prepare a draft report on progress on SDG 1; undertake capacity-building of national policymakers in two countries (Egypt and Somalia) and prepare a draft funding proposal for the labour mobility implications of implementing AU flagship.

In less than 3 years Africa has been hit with a number of crises, many originating outside the continent. Russia’s war in Ukraine has hindered Africa’s recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic by increasing food and energy costs, disrupting trade, narrowing fiscal space and decreasing the flow of development funds throughout the region. The Covid-19 pandemic had already increased African debt and stretched governments abilities to expand fiscal spending while costing over 250,000 African lives and pushing an estimated 55 million Africans into extreme poverty. The Ukraine conflict arose at a time when Africa is still striving to place its economy on the path to recovery amidst global inflationary pressures and a highly unpredictable environment. Given the continued impact of overlapping shocks on poverty and inequality, there is a huge risk that Africa will not achieve the SDGs by 2030 and the implementation of Agenda 2063 is also likely to go off-track. As a result, the theme of the tenth session of the Africa Regional Forum for Sustainable Development (ARFSD-10), to be organized in April 2024, will emphasize the importance of accelerating and integrated implementation of SDGs and the Second Ten-Year Implementation Plan (STYIP) of the Agenda 2063. To advance Africa’s progress and economic development, greater public participation, cooperation, and integration of African countries are required. To achieve its goals, the African Union has announced 15 flagship projects, among which the AfCFTA and the Protocol on Free Movement of Persons are a priority to foster shared and sustainable development to foster shared and inclusive development. The free movement of goods and people is expected to catalyze the optimal utilization of the resources, bring rapid economic growth, and reduce poverty and inequality. ECA’s current work on poverty and inequality – GPSPD leads the commission’s work on developing knowledge products and supporting member States in analysis and estimation of poverty and inequality.

In 2023, GPSPD developed an innovative imputed elasticity approach for estimating and analyzing poverty and inequality in the absence of the most recent household survey data. With crises entrenching poverty and exacerbating inequalities in Africa, understanding how to effectively assess vulnerabilities associated falling into poverty is critical for robust evidence-based policy response. However, many countries do not have the latest household survey income/consumption data for estimating the impact of the recent crises on poverty levels.

The approach provides updated poverty estimates and insights into factors associated with poverty dynamics and can guide the formulation of evidence-based national plans and strategies to address poverty, inequality, and vulnerability. In addition, GPSPD is implementing a Development Account project in select countries by strengthening their social protection systems and programmes to alleviate the impact of the multiple crises and reduce poverty and contribute to transformative change.

GPSPD wishes to recruit a national consultant with strong econometric skills to deepen its current work in poverty and inequality analysis and estimation, and social protection to inform policy and provide technical assistance to member States. This will be done by (i) supporting the formulation of ECA’s methodological approaches to poverty, inequality and social protection and their application in selected member States, and (ii) assessing the labour mobility implications of implementing two AUC flagship projects.

The assignment consists of four distinct but inter-related parts that extends the division’s current work on poverty, inequality and social protection and supports additional work planned in 2024: (i) Prepare a draft consolidated background report on progress on SDG 1, with inputs from contributing UN agencies, and provide inputs to a report on Status of Poverty in Africa, for the ARFSD-10 (January-March 2024) (ii) Undertake capacity-building of national policymakers in two countries (Egypt and Somalia) on the imputed elasticity approach to extend the division’s work on poverty analysis and estimation (April-May 2024) (iii) Conduct an analysis of the role of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and the Protocol on the Free Movement of Persons in enhancing labour mobility, as part of the joint AUC and ECA migration project (June-9th January 2025) (iv) Prepare methodology part of draft funding proposal for the labour mobility implications of implementing AU flagship projects: the AfCFTA and the Free Movement of Persons Protocol and African Common Visa regime (June-September 2024)

a) Prepare a draft consolidated background report on progress on SDG 1, with inputs from contributing UN agencies, and provide inputs to a report on Status of Poverty in Africa, for the ARFSD-10.

b) Undertake capacity-building of national policymakers in two countries (Egypt and Somalia) on the imputed elasticity approach to extend the division’s work on poverty analysis and estimation.

c) Conduct an analysis of the role of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and the Protocol on the Free Movement of Persons in enhancing labour mobility, as part of the joint AUC and ECA migration project.

d) Prepare a draft funding proposal for the labour mobility implications of implementing AU flagship projects: the AfCFTA and the Free Movement of Persons Protocol and African Common Visa regime.

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